Smithson, M. (online 2023).  The ROC area under the curve (or mean ridit) as an effect-size.  Psychological Methods. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000601

Kidd, E., Arciuli, J., Christiansen, M.H., and Smithson, M. (online 2023). The sources and consequences of individual differences in statistical learning for language development. Cognitive Development. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogdev.2023.101335

Shou, Y., Farrer, L. M., Gulliver, A., Newman, E., Batterham, P. J., & Smithson, M. (2023). Understanding Australian Government Risk Communication Early in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Sociodemographics, Risk Attitudes and Media Consumption. Journal of Health Communication, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/10810730.2023.2197403

Whitecross, W. M., & Smithson, M. (online 2023). Curiously different: interest-curiosity and deprivation-curiosity have distinct benefits and drawbacks.  Personality and Individual Differences, 213, 112310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2023.112310

• Whitecross, W. M., & Smithson, M. (online 2023). Open or opposed to unknowns: How do curious people think and feel about uncertainty?. Personality and Individual Differences, 209, 112210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2023.112210

• Smithson, M. & Shou, Y. (online 2023). Flexible cdf-quantile distributions on the closed unit interval, with software and applications.  Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods.  https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03610926.2023.2166352

• Shou, Y.,  Smithson, M., Gulliver, A.,  Murray, K., Banfield, M., ..., & Batterham, P. (accepted 10/03/2022). Risk tolerance and changes in COVID-related health behaviors: A longitudinal study. Health Psychology.

• Smithson, M., Shou, Y., Dawel, A., Calear, A.L., Farrer, L., & Cherbuin, N. (2022). The Psychological benefits of an uncertain world: Hope and optimism in the face of existential threat. Frontiers in  Psychology, 13:749093. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.74909.

• Smithson, M. & Broomell, S.B. (2022). Compositional Data Analysis Tutorial. Psychological Methods.  https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000464

• . Dawel, A., Shou, Y., Gulliver, A., Cherbuin, N., Banfield, M., Murray, K., ... & Smithson, M. (2021). Cause or symptom? A longitudinal test of bidirectional relationships between emotion regulation strategies and mental health symptoms. Emotion.

• Smithson, M. & Shou, Y. (2021). How Big is (Sample) Space? Judgement and Decision Making with Unknown States and Outcomes.  Decision, 8(4), 237-256.

• Dawel, A., Shou, Y., Smithson, M., Cherbuin, N., Banfield, M., Calear, A. L., ... & McCallum, S. M. (2020). The effect of COVID-19 on mental health and wellbeing in a representative sample of Australian adults. Frontiers in Psychiatry, 11, 1026.

• Shou, Y., Olney, J., Smithson, M., and Song, F. (2020). Impact of uncertainty and ambiguous outcome phrasing on moral decision-making. PLOS ONE, 15(5):1–20.

• Kidd, E., Arciuli, J., Christiansen, M.H., Isbilen, E., Revius, K, and Smithson, M. (2020). Measuring children’s auditory statistical learning via serial recall. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, 200, 104964.

• Alzaatreh A., Aljarrah M., Smithson M., Shahbaz S.H., Shahbaz M.Q., Famoye F., and Lee C. (2020).Truncated T-X family of distributions with applications to time and cost to start a business. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability.  doi.org/10.1007/s11009-020-09801-1.

• Smithson, M. (2020). Uncertainty. In G. Ritzer & C. Rojek (eds.), Wiley Blackwell Encyclopedia of Sociology, 2nd Edition. London: Wiley, pp. , DOI: 10.1002/9781405165518.wbeosu001.pub2.

• Bammer, G. et al. (2020). Expertise in research integration and implementation for tackling complex problems: when is it needed, where can it be found and how can it be strengthened? Palgrave Communications 6, 5. doi:10.1057/s41599-019-0380-0

• Smithson, M. & Shou. Y. (2020). Generalized Linear Models for Bounded and Limited Quantitative Variables.  Los Angleles, CA: Sage.

• Smithson, M. (2019). Imprecise compositional data analysis: Alternative statistical methods. Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, 103, 364-366.

  Smithson, M. (2019). Incompletely known sample spaces: Models and human intuitions. Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, 103, 367-376.

• Lane, J, Robbins, RA; Rohan, EMF, Crookes, K, Essex, RW, Maddess, T, Sabeti, F, Mazlin, J-L, Irons, J, Gradden, T, Dawel, A, Barnes, N, He, X, Smithson, M, McKone, E (2019). Caricaturing can improve facial expression recognition in low-resolution images and age-related macular degeneration. Journal of Vision, 19(6): 18. doi:10.1167/19.6.18

• Smithson, M., Priest, D., Shou, Y., & Newell, B.R. (2019). Ambiguity and conflict aversion when uncertainty is in the outcomes. Frontiers in Psychology, 10, 539. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00539
• Shou, Y. & Smithson, M. (2019). cdfquantreg: An R package for CDF-Quantile Regression. Journal of Statistical Software, 88, 1-30.
• Smithson, M. (2018). Trusted autonomy under uncertainty. In H. A. Abbass, J. B. Scholz, and D. J. Reid (Eds.), Foundations of Trusted Autonomy.  N.Y.: Springer, pp. 185-201.
• Ben-Haim, Y. & Smithson, M. (2018). Data-based prediction under uncertainty: CDF-quantile distributions and info-gap robustness.  Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 18: 11-30. doi: https://doi-org.virtual.anu.edu.au/10.1016/j.jmp.2018.08.006
• Smithson, M. & Blakey, P. (2018). New distributions for modeling subjective lower and upper probabilities.  International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 100: 56–68. doi: https://doi-org.virtual.anu.edu.au/10.1016/j.ijar.2018.05.007
• Brown, R.F., Thorsteinsson, E.B., Smithson, M., Birmingham, C.L., Aljarallah, H., & Nolan, C. (2017). Can body temperature dysregulation explain the co-occurrence between overweight/obesity, sleep impairment, late-night eating, and a sedentary lifestyle? Eating and Weight Disorders. doi:10.1007/s40519-017-0439-0
• Smithson, M. (2017). New distributions for modeling subjective lower and upper probabilities. Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, 62, 301-312.
• Smithson, M., Shou, Y., & Wu, Alice (2017). Question word-order influences on covariate effects: Predicting zero-sum beliefs. Behaviormetrika.  doi: 10.1007/s41237-017-0030-z
• Egozcue, M., Garcıa, L.F., Katsikopoulos, K.V., & Smithson, M. (2017).  Simple models in finance: Evaluating the accuracy rate of the recognition heuristic.  Journal of Risk Model Validation, 11: 1-21.
• Smithson, M. & Shou, Y. (2017). CDF-quantile distributions for modeling random variables on the unit interval. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology. doi: 10.1111/bmsp.12091
• Bradley, B. & Smithson, M. (2017). Groupness in Preverbal Infants: Proof of Concept. Frontiers in Psychology. doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00385
• Lee, E., Reynolds, K.J., Subasic, E., Bromhead, D., Lin, H., Marinov, V., & Smithson, M. (2017). Development of a dual school climate and school identification measure–Student (SCASIM-St). Contemporary Educational Psychology, 49, 91-106 doi: 10.1016/j.cedpsych.2017.01.003
• Corke, M., Bell, J., Goodhew, S.C., Smithson, M., & Edwards, M. (2016). Perceived time slows during fleeting fun or fear. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. doi 10.1080/17470218.2016.1264000.
• Smithson, M. (2016). Human understandings of probability. In A. Hájek and C. Hitchcock (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 477-496.
• Smithson, M. & Shou, Y. (2016). Asymmetries in responses to attitude statements:The example of “zero-sum” beliefs. Frontiers in Psychology, 7: 984. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00984
• Shou, Y. & Smithson, M. (2016). Causal reasoning under ambiguity: An illustration of modelling mixture strategies. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 
• Smithson, M. & Shou, Y. (2016). Moderator Effects Differ on Alternative Effect-Size Measures.  Behavioral Research Methods, doi: 10.3758/s13428-016-0735-z
• Smithson, M. (2016). Chapter 8. Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic in the human sciences. In C. Kahraman, U. Kaynak, and A. Yazıcı (Eds.), Fuzzy Logic in its 50th Year: New Developments, Directions and Challenges, Singapore: Springer, pp. 175-186.
• Shou, Y. & Smithson, M.  (2015). cdfquantreg: Quantile Regression for Random Variables on the Unit Interval. R package version 1.0.
• Shou, Y. & Smithson, M. (2015) Adapting to an uncertain world: Cognitive capacity and causal reasoning with ambiguous observations. PLoS ONE 10(10): e0140608. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140608.
• Pushkarskaya, H., Smithson, M., Joseph, J.E., Corbly, C., & Levy, I. (2015) Neural correlates of decision-making under ambiguity and conflict. Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience, 9, 325.  doi: 10.3389/fnbeh.2015.00325.
• Smithson, M., Sopena, A. & Platow, M. (2015) When is group membership zero-sum? Effects of ethnicity, threat, and social identity on dual national identity,  PLOS ONE 1-18, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0130539.
• Smithson, M. & Pushkarskaya, H. (2015) Ignorance and the brain: Are there distinct kinds of unknowns?  In L. McGoey and M. Gross (Eds.), International Handbook of Ignorance Studies, London: Routledge, pp. 114-124. 
• Smithson, M. (2015) Ignorance studies: Interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary, and transdisciplinary.  In L. McGoey and M. Gross (Eds.), International Handbook of Ignorance Studies, London: Routledge, pp. 385-399. 
• Smithson, M. (2015) Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict. Frontiers in Psychology: Quantitative Psychology and Measurement, 6, 1-9, doi: =10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00674.
• Smithson, M. & Ben-Haim, Y. (2015) Reasoned decision making without math? Adaptability and robustness in response to surprise. Risk Analysis, 35, 1911-1918. doi: 10.1111/risa.12397.
• Shou, Y. & Smithson. M. (2015) Effects of question formats on causal judgments and model evaluation. Frontiers in Psychology: Quantitative Psychology and Measurement, 6, 1-12, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00467.
• Lewandowsky, S., Oreskes, N., Risbey, J.S., Newell, B.R., & Smithson, M. (2015). Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community. Global Environmental Change, 33, 1-13.
• Shou, Y. & Smithson, M. (2015). Evaluating predictors of dispersion: A comparison of Dominance Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging. Psychometrika, 80, 236-256.
• Platow, M. J., Grace, D. M., & Smithson, M. J. (2014). When immigrants and converts are not truly one of us: Examining the social psychology of marginalizing racism. In K. Rubenstein, F. Jenkins, & M. Nolan (Eds.), Allegiance and Identity in a Globalised World. Cambridge: Cambridge Univesity Press, pp. 192-220.
• Smithson, M. & Shou, Y. (2014). Randomly stopped sums: Models and psychological applications. Frontiers in Psychology: Quantitative Psychology and Measurement, 1-11, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01279
• Budescu, D.V., Por, H-H., Broomell, S.B., & Smithson, M. (2014) The Interpretation of IPCC Probabilistic Statements around the World. Nature Climate Change. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2194
• Lewandowsky, S., Risbey, J.S., Smithson, M., Newell, B.R., & Hunter, J. (2014) Scientific Uncertainty and Climate Change: Part I. Uncertainty and Unabated Emissions. Climatic Change, 124, 21-37.
• Lewandowsky, S., Risbey, J.S., Smithson, M., & Newell, B.R. (2014) Scientific Uncertainty and Climate Change: Part II. Uncertainty and Mitigation. Climatic Change, 124, 39-52.
• Smithson, M. (2014) Elicitation. In T. Augustin, F. Coolen, G. de Cooman and M. Troffaes (Eds.), An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities. London: Wiley, pp. 318-328.
• Smithson, M. and Merkle, E.C. (2014). Generalized Linear Models for Categorical and Continuous Limited Dependent Variables. Boca Raton, Florida: Chapman and Hall.
• Smithson, M. (2013) Unknowns in dual use dilemmas. In B. Rappert and M. Selgelid (Eds.) On the Dual uses of Science and Ethics : Principles, Practices, and Prospects, ANU E-Press, pp. 165-184.
• Smithson, M. (2013). Conflict and ambiguity: Preliminary models and empirical tests. Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, Compiegne, France, 2-5 July 2013: pp. 303-310.
• Smithson, M. (2012). A simple statistic for comparing moderation of slopes and correlations. Frontiers in Quantitative Psychology and Measurement, 3, 1-9, DOI=10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00231.
• Verkuilen, J. and Smithson, M. (2012). Mixed and mixture regression models for continuous bounded responses using the beta distribution.  Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 37, 82-113.
• Smithson, M., Budescu, D.V., Broomell, S.B., and Por, H.-H. (2012). Never Say 'not:' Impact of negative wording in probability phrases on imprecise probability judgments. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 53, 1262-1270.
• Hájek, A. and Smithson, M. (2012). Rationality and indeterminate probabilities. Synthese, 187, 33-48.
• Butcher, P., Bouma, A., Stremmelaar, E.F., Bos, A.F., Smithson, M., &Van Braeckel, K.N.J.A. (2012). Visuospatial perception in children born preterm is doubly disadvantaged. Neuropsychology, 26, 723-734.
• Smithson, M. (2012) Uncertainty. In V.S. Ramachandran (ed.) Encyclopedia of Human Behavior, 2nd Edition. Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 621-628.
• Platow, M. J., Grace, D. M., & Smithson, M. J. (2011). Examining the preconditions for psychological group membership: Perceived social interdependence as the outcome of self categorization. Social Psychology and Personality Science, 3, 5-13.
• Smithson, M., Merkle, E.C. and Verkuilen, J. (2011). Beta regression finite mixture models of polarization and priming. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 36, 804-831.
• Smithson, M., Davies, M., & Aimola-Davies, A. (2011). Exploiting test structure: Case series, case-control comparison, and dissociation. Cognitive Neuropsychology, 28(1), 44-64.
• Merkle, E.C., Smithson, M. and Verkuilen, J. (2011). Using beta-distributed hierarchical models to examine simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making.  Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 55, 57-67.
• Smithson, M., Budescu, D.V., Broomell, S.B., and Por, H.-H. (2011). Never Say 'Not:' Impact of Negative Wording in Probability Phrases on Imprecise Probability Judgments. Proceedings of the Seventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, Innsbruck, Austria, 25-28 July 2011: pp. 327-333.
• Smithson, M. (2011) Confidence interval. In M. Lovric (Ed.) International encyclopedia of statistical sciences, Part 3. N.Y.: Springer, 283-284. 
• Pushkarskaya, H., Liu, X., Smithson, M. and Joseph, J.E. (2010). Beyond risk and ambiguity: deciding under ignorance. Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Neuroscience, 10 (3), 382-391.
• Smithson, M. (2010) When less is more in the recognition heuristic. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 230-243.
• Smithson, M. (2010) Ignorance and uncertainty. In V. A. Brown, J. Russell, and J. Harris (Eds). Tackling wicked problems through the transdisciplinary imagination. London: Earthscan, 84-97.
• Pushkarskaya, H., Smithson, M., Liu, X. and Joseph, J.E. (2010). Neuroeconomics of environmental uncertainty and the theory of firm. In M. Day, A. Stanton, and I. Welpe (Eds.) Neuroeconomics and the Firm. Cheltenham UK: Elgar, 13-28.
• Smithson, M. (2010) Understanding uncertainty. In G. Bammer (Ed.), Dealing with Uncertainties in Policing Serious Crime. Canberra: ANU E-Press, 27-48.
• Smithson, M. (2009) How many alternatives? Partitions pose problems for predictions and diagnoses. Social Epistemology, 23, 347-360.
• Smithson, M. & Segale, C. (2009) Partition priming in judgments of imprecise probabilities. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice ,3, 169-182.
• Aimola-Davies, A., Davies, M., Ogden, J., Smithson, M. & White, R.C. (2009).  Cognitive and motivational factors in anosognosia. In T. Bayne & J. Fernandez (Eds.), Delusions and Self-Deception: Affective and Motivational Influences on Belief-Formation. Hove, East Sussex: Psychology Press, 187-225.

• Selected Older Publications

• Bammer, G. and Smithson, M. (Eds.) (2008). Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives. London: Earthscan.
• Smithson, M. and Verkuilen, J. (2006). Fuzzy Set Theory: Applications in the Social Sciences. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series. Belmont, CA: Sage.
• Smithson, M. (2003). Confidence intervals. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series, No. 140. Belmont, CA: Sage.
• Smithson, M. (1989) Ignorance and uncertainty: Emerging paradigms. New York, NY: Springer.