Professor Mike SMITHSON

PhD

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Research and Supervision Interests
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Selected Publications
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Ignorance and Uncertainty, Risk, Decision Making, Statistical Methods for Psychological Research, Social Dilemmas, Fuzzy Logic, Philosophy and Social Psychology of Science

• coordinator PSYC2009 ( Quantitative Methods in Psychology )
• coordinator PSYC4005F ( Honours : Methodology )

• Marcell Noja (PhD): Moral reasoning and ethical risk-taking
• Stephen Tang (PhD clinical): Indecision and narrative reasoning
• Scarlet Bennett (PhD): Peak performance techniques for musicians
• Lisa Stewart (PhD): Decision making about water consumption
• John Shin (PhD): Resilience and uncertainty orientation
• David Reeves (MPhil): Temporal discounting
• Yiyun Shou (PhD): Causal reasoning
• Sheri Kim (Honours): Moderator effects
• Susie Wang (Honours): Zero-sum thinking
• Dani Martinie (Honours): Psychological costs of assurance relations

PhD Sociology, University of Oregon 1976

BsC Mathematics, Harvey Mudd College 1972

Smithson, M. (2013) Agnotology, ignorance and uncertainty. In B. Kaldis, (Ed.) Encyclopedia of Philosophy and the Social Sciences. Sage, 17-19.

Smithson, M., Budescu, D.V., Broomell, S.B., and Por, H.-H. (2012). Never Say 'Not:' Impact of Negative Wording in Probability Phrases on Imprecise Probability Judgments. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 53, 1262-1270. 

Butcher, P., Bouma, A., Stremmelaar, E.F., Bos, A.F., Smithson, M., &Van Braeckel, K.N.J.A. 2012). Visuospatial perception in children born preterm is doubly disadvantaged. Neuropsychology, 26, 723-734.

Smithson, M. (2012). A simple statistic for comparing moderation of slopes and correlations. Frontiers in Quantitative Psychology and Measurement, 3, 1-9, DOI=10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00231.

Verkuilen, J. and Smithson, M. (2012). Mixed and mixture regression models for continuous bounded responses using the beta distribution. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 37, 82-113.

Hájek, A. and Smithson, M. (2012). Rationality and indeterminate probabilities. Synthese, 187, 33-48.

Smithson, M. (2012). Uncertainty. In V.S. Ramachandran (ed.) Encyclopedia of Human Behavior, 2^nd Edition. Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 621-628.

Platow, M. J., Grace, D. M., & Smithson, M. J. (2011). Examining the preconditions for psychological group membership: Perceived social interdependence as the outcome of self categorization. Social Psychology and Personality Science, 3, 5-13.

Platow, M. J., Grace, D. M., & Smithson, M. J. (in press). When immigrants and converts are not truly one of us: Examining the social psychology of marginalizing racism. In K. Rubenstein, F. Jenkins, & M. Nolan (Eds.), Allegiance and Identity in a Globalised World. Cambridge: Cambridge Univesity Press.

Smithson, M., Davies, M., & Aimola-Davies, A. (2011) Exploiting test structure: Case series, case-control comparison, and dissociation. Cognitive Neuropsychology, 28(1), 44-64.

Smithson, M., Merkle, E.C. and Verkuilien, J. (2011). Beta regression finite mixture models of polarization and priming. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 36, 804-831.

Merkle, E.C., Smithson, M. and Verkuilien, J. (2011). Using beta-distributed hierarchical models to examine simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making.  Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 55, 57-67. 

Smithson, M. (2011) Confidence interval. In M. Lovric (Ed.) International encyclopedia of statistical sciences. N.Y.: Springer, 283-284.

Pushkarskaya, H., Liu, X., Smithson, M. and Joseph, J.E. (2010) Beyond risk and ambiguity: deciding under ignorance. Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Neuroscience, 10 (3), 382-391.

Smithson, M. (2010). Ignorance and uncertainty. In V. A. Brown, J. Russell, and J. Harris (Eds). Tackling wicked problems through the transdisciplinary imagination. London: Earthscan, 84-97.

Smithson, M. (2010) When less is more in the recognition heuristic. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 230-243. 

Smithson, M. (2010)  A review of six introductory texts on Bayesian methods. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 35, 371-374.

Smithson, M. (2010) Understanding uncertainty. In G. Bammer (Ed.), Dealing with Uncertainties in Policing Serious Crime. Canberra: ANU E-Press, 27-48.

Pushkarskaya, H., Smithson, M., Liu, X. and Joseph, J.E. (2010) Neuroeconomics of Environmental Uncertainty and the Theory of Firm. In M. Day, A. Stanton, and I. Welpe (Eds.) Neuroeconomics and the Firm. Cheltenham UK: Elgar, 13-28.

Smithson, M. (2009) How many alternatives? Partitions pose problems for predictions and diagnoses. Social Epistemology, 23, 347-360.

Aimola-Davies, A., Davies, M., Ogden, J., Smithson, M. & White, R.C. (2009) "Cognitive and motivational factors in anosognosia." In T. Bayne & J. Fernandez (Eds.) Delusions and Self-Deception: Affective Influences on Belief-Formation. Hove, East Sussex: Psychology Press, 187-225.

Smithson, M. & Segale, C. (2009) "Partition priming in judgments of imprecise probabilities."Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 3, 169-182.

Smithson, M. & Baker, C. (2008) “Risk Orientation, Loving and Liking in Long-Term Romantic Relationships.” Journal of Personal and Social Relationships, 25, 87-103.

Smithson, M. (2008). “Social theories of ignorance.” In R. Proctor and L. Schiebinger (Eds.), Agnotology: The cultural production of ignorance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

Smithson, M. (2008). “The many faces and masks of uncertainty.” In Bammer, G. and Smithson, M. (Eds.) Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives. London: Earthscan, pp. 13-26.

Smithson, M. (2008). “Psychology’s ambivalent view of uncertainty.” In Bammer, G. and Smithson, M. (Eds.) Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives. London: Earthscan, pp. 205-218.

Bammer, G. & Smithson, M. (2008). “The nature of uncertainty.” In Bammer, G. and Smithson, M. (Eds.) Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives. London: Earthscan, pp.289-304.

Smithson, M. & Bammer, G. (2008). “Uncertainty metaphors, motives and morals.” In Bammer, G. and Smithson, M. (Eds.) Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives. London: Earthscan, pp.305-320.

Smithson, M. & Bammer, G. (2008). “Coping and managing under uncertainty.” In Bammer, G. and Smithson, M. (Eds.) Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives. London: Earthscan, pp. 321-333.

Smithson, M., Gracik, L. & Deady, S. (2007). “Guilty, not guilty, or … ? Multiple verdict options in jury verdict choices.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20, 481-498.

Smithson, M. (2006). Scale construction from a decisional viewpoint. Minds and Machines, 16, 339-364.

Smithson, M. & Verkuilen, J. (2006). A better lemon-squeezer? Maximum likelihood regression with beta-distributed dependent variables.Psychological Methods, 11, 54-71.

Smithson, M. & Verkuilen, J. (2006). Fuzzy Set Theory. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Smithson, M., McFadden, M. & Mwesigye, S.-E. (2005). Predicting heroin purity in the Australian Capital Territory from Inter-State Seizures. Addiction, 100, 1110-1120.

Smithson, M., McFadden, M., Mwesigye, S.-E., & Casey. T. (2004). The impact of illicit drug supply reduction on health and social outcomes: The heroin shortage in the A.C.T. Addiction, 98, 340-348.

Smithson, M.J. (2003). Confidence Intervals, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series, No. 140. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Foddy, M. Smithson, M. Schneider, S. and Hogg, M. (Eds.) (1999). Resolving Social Dilemmas: Dynamic, Structural, and Intergroup Aspects. Philadelphia: Psychology Press.

Smithson, M. (1999). Conflict Aversion: Preference for Ambiguity vs. Conflict in Sources and Evidence." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79: 179-198.